Where the jobs are…and aren’t

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Where the jobs are…and aren’t

Last month the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a 10-year projection for job growth and job loss in specific industries (2008-2018). Total employment is expected to increase by 15.3 million (10.1%) during this period, with growth concentrated in the service-providing sector.

This growth in the service sector marks the continuation of a long-term trend, with the U. S. economy shifting away from the production of goods. As has as always been true of goods-producing industries, growth in the service sector varies depending on the service (goods) provided. Healthcare and social assistance will soar; utilities won’t do well (see the chart below):

service-sector

Here’s how the change in occupational groups is expected to look:

change-in-occupational-groups2

Of the 20 fastest-growing occupations in the economy, an extraordinary half are related to healthcare. This is primarily due–no surprise!—to the aging of the Baby Boom generation, requiring a rise in doctors,nurses, home health care workers, physical therapists, etc. Here’s a chart that lays it out clearly, along with educational requirements:

fast-growth

Finally, here’s the Bureau’s projection for industries that will gain or lose the most jobs during 2008-2018:

Top 10 Industries with largest wage/salary employment growth (2008-2018):

1. Management, scientific, and technical consulting services: Up 835,000 jobs (+82.8%). This sector will experience a stunning increase of nearly 83%! According to the BLS, this growth will be spurred by the continuing need of business for advice on planning, logistics, new technologies, workplace safety compliance, and environmental/employment and other regulations.

2. Offices of physicians: Up 772,000 jobs (+34.1%)

3. Computer systems design and related services: Up 656,000 jobs (+45.3%). Plenty of programming jobs have migrated offshore, but there is still plenty of onshore work in this category. Computer programming is a solid job choice for the years immediately ahead.

4. Other general merchandise stores: Up 607,000 jobs (+40.7%)

5. Employment services: Up 600,000 jobs (+19.1%). Head-hunters, or, more properly, employment placement specialists, will be hot. Good jobs for those with people skills.

6. Local government, excluding education and hospitals: Up 487,000 jobs (+8.4%)

7. Home health care services: Up 441,000 jobs (+46.1%). No surprise here, with Baby Boomers hitting retirement age and heading into senior citizen-hood. According to the BLS, the 55-and-older group will increase by 29.7% during the 2008-2018 period. This fact also greatly influences No. 8 and No. 9, below.

8. Services for the elderly and persons with disabilities: Up 431,000 jobs (+73.8%)

9. Nursing care facilities: Up 394,000 jobs (+24.4%)

10. Full-service restaurants: Up 343,000 jobs (+7.5%)

And here’s the 10 U. S. industries that will encounter the greatest number of job losses in the coming decade:

1. Department Stores: Down 159,000 jobs (-10.2%). Department stores have been losing customers through the past decade due to online shopping and the proliferation of Big Box stores.

2. Semiconductor and other electronic component makers: Down 146,000 jobs (-33.7%). The drift to offshore manufacturing will continue.

3. Auto parts manufacturers: Down 101,000 jobs (-18.6%). This can come as no surprise to anyone.

4. U.S. Postal Service: Down 98,000 jobs (-13%). Again, no surprises here—the once-mighty USPS has been in a battle for years against FedEx and UPS, not to mention that few people write letters or mail checks these days.

5. Printing businesses: Down 95,000 jobs (-16%)

6. Cut and sew apparel makers: Down 95,000 jobs (-57%). This industry has been decimated over the last couple of decades, and will continue to send jobs offshore.

7. Newspaper publishers: Down 81,000 jobs (-24.8%). Apparently the worst is not yet over!

8. Support businesses for mining: Down 76,000 jobs (-23.2%)

9. Gas stations: Down 75,000 jobs (-8.9%)

10. Wired telecom businesses: Down 73,000 jobs (-11%). In the last couple of years, an increasing number of people have done away with their landlines to rely solely on cell phones.

© Suzanne Rodriguez

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